Coupe du Monde 2018: Paul the octopus is back

(Français) Fifa World Cup 2018

À l’occasion de l’Euro 2008 et du Mondial 2010, l’oracle d’Oberhausen (plus communément connu sous le nom de « Paul le poulpe ») a défrayé la chronique. Ses prévisions exactes concernant les résultats de l’équipe allemande lors de l’Euro 2008 et la désignation de l’équipe victorieuse du Mondial 2010 (l’Espagne) sont encore ancrées dans les mémoires. Avec quelques collègues (Enora Belz, Romain Gaté, Vincent Malardé et Jimmy Merlet) nous avons tenté de poursuivre le travail de feu Paul le poulpe pour prédire l’issue des rencontres à venir du Mondial 2018. Pour ce faire, nous nous appuyons sur les résultats des rencontres passées de coupe du Monde et de coupes Continentales1.


Seminar, INED, 2018

Tomorrow, I will present a paper co-authored with Arthur Charpentier on collaborative data and their use in historical demography. The presentation will take place at the “History and Population” research department of the The French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED).

The slides that will be displayed during the presentation are available below (in French).

The slides are available inside the blog post.


EENR Conference, Orléans

Orléans, 2018

Last Tuesday and Friday, I was in the Laboratoire d’Economie d’Orléans (LEO), the Economics department of the University of Orléans (France). I attended an international conference untitled: “Environmental Economics: A Focus on Natural Resources”. The conference program is available here: https://sites.google.com/view/eenr-orleans/program.

I presented the new version of the real business cycle model we have been working on with Gauthier Vermandel. This model aims at investigating the short run effects of weather shocks on business cycles as well as the potential long run effects of climate change on macroeconomic volatility and welfare. The working paper is available on RePEc : Weather Shocks, Climate Change and Business Cycles.

See the slides by clicking on the title of this blog post to reveal the full length article.


Historical Demographics and Collaborative Data

Généalogie de Victor Hugo

A few month ago, I mentioned in a blog post that I had presented the beginnings of the work undertaken with Arthur Charpentier on historical demographics using collaborative data from a genealogy website, geneanet.org. I also reported on the progress of our research during some morning presentations with the members of the Actinfo Chair (see the blog post). Today, Arthur and I published a working paper on HAL untitled “Étude de la démographie française du XIXe siècle à partir de données collaboratives de généalogie” (French for “Nineteenth-century French demography from collaborative genealogy data”). The paper is written in French.


(Français) Communes proches avec R


Dans mes travaux actuels, j’ai besoin d’identifier pour une commune en particulier, quelles sont les autres communes proches, pour un rayon donné de 20km. Pour obtenir une telle information, je me suis appuyé sur les données de communes d’Open Street Map. L’idée est simple :

  • récupérer les frontières des communes ;
  • les étendre ;
  • regarder quelles communes sont en intersection avec les frontières étendues.

Morning talks – COVEA


I am going to Paris today to attend a meeting this morning with the people from the Actinfo Chair that I am now part of for the duration of my post-doc with Arthur Charpentier.

I will present the research on genealogy using collaborative data we have been working on this summer. This will be the occation to speak about what we plan to do with Arthur regarding those data in the near future.

Olivier Wintenberger will also share with us his recent research.


GEOMED 2017 conference in Porto (Portugal)

Porto 2017

This week I will attend the GEOMED2017 conference in Porto, in Portugal. Researchers from different horizons will be gathering here to attend to some talks about spatial statistics, spatial epidemiology and public health. This will be the perfect occasion for me to learn more on those subjects during the three days of the conferences. I will also attend a workshop given by Lee Duncan from Glasgow University on modelling spatial data in R with the package CARBayes).


Where’s Waldo? Here he is!

Yesterday, I came across a nice article untitled “Here’s Waldo: Computing the optimal search strategy for finding Waldo“, written by Randal S. Olson. I used the data he shared to apply a correction to the kernel density estimation of Waldo’s location.

In this article, Randal explains that he has devoted some time to try to compute the optimal search strategy for finding Waldo. To that end, he has used some machine learning techniques.
From an image provided by Slate (Here’s Waldo, 2013, by Ben Blatt), Randal S. Olson retrieved the coordinates of 68 different locations of Waldo, and kindly shared the data afterwards.